The 2026 HVAC Contractor Survey Revealed
The HVAC industry continues to evolve. Contractors are navigating shifting customer expectations, economic pressure, evolving technology, labor challenges, and the growing complexity of running a business in a market that never stays still for long. With so many moving parts, it can be difficult to know what is changing, what matters most, and where the biggest areas for growth may be ahead.
In this week’s episode of Cracking the Code, Dave Holt sits down with Julie Trujillo of Decision Analyst to discuss the 2026 HVAC Contractor Survey and what it reveals about the current state of the industry. Their conversation explores the broader trends influencing contractors and sets the stage for a deeper look at what is shaping the HVAC market right now and what that means for you and your business.
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So. Welcome back to Cracking the Code, where we break down the ideas, trends, and strategies that help contractors run stronger, smarter businesses. Today’s episode is all about understanding what’s really happening in the Hvac contractor market right now. Not based on guesswork, but based on real, actionable data. Every year, the Hvac Contractor Survey gives us a clear snapshot of what contractors across North America are experiencing, what they’re thinking, and what they’re prioritizing.
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Joining me today is someone who helps bring this data to life. I’m joined today by Julie Trujillo from Decision Analyst. The research partner behind the 2026 Hvac Contractor Survey. Julie, you and your team have a unique perspective because you’re not just collecting data, you’re actually interpreting what it actually means for the industry. So today we’re going to talk about what stood out in this year’s results.
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What’s changing, what’s not and what contractors, distributors and manufacturers should be paying attention to as we move through 2026 and get into 2027. So Julie, welcome back to Cracking the Code.
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She’s back. And thanks for having me Dave. You bet. So let’s start here for context for those who may not be familiar with the survey, give us kind of the big picture. What is the 2026 Hvac Contractor survey and why does this kind of research matter for the industry? Absolutely. And yes, truly. Thanks for having me here. It means a lot to get to spend some time talking about this survey.
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So out of high level, the Hvac contractor survey is designed to give the industry a fact based understanding of contractor behavior challenges and priorities. So not just, you know, what do we think? What are our opinions. It’s really data driven. So we’re talking about a broad mix of contractors from across the U.S. and Canada. We’ve got different company sizes, from smaller owner operators to larger, much more structured organizations.
00:02:21:23 – 00:02:47:09
And then there’s a range of roles. So we have owners managers and then some of their team members as well. And what makes this important is it moves the conversation from what we think is happening to what contractors are actually experiencing. And that’s critical because the industry is evolving quickly. There’s a lot of assumptions being made and decisions are often based on limited visibility.
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So this kind of data helps. It gives contractors benchmarks for themselves, distributors to some better information to understand their customers. And then manufacturers can align their strategies with real world conditions. So it really becomes a shared lens for the entire Hvac channel. Man, that was a mouthful. You had that. You had that all planned out pretty good. You’ve done this before, haven’t you?
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So that’s that’s great context. It really, really sets the stage for why this matters. So thinking about that, let’s get into the findings. So let’s talk about kind of the the biggest headlines when you reviewed the 2026 results. What were some of the biggest headlines or most interesting themes that really jumped out to you right away? Yeah, well, there were definitely some things that stood out almost immediately.
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So first, there’s still a significant gap between high performing contractors and everyone else. So you’ve got a smaller group that’s very process driven. They’re focused on pricing systems and structured selling. And then a much larger group that’s still operating more reactively. And then second, we’re seeing continued pressure around labor time and overall operational stress. So even as demand remains relatively strong, many contractors are saying, hey, we’re busy, but it doesn’t feel any easier.
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And third, one of the more interesting findings is around how contractors approached sales and pricing. There’s still a large percentage of contractors who don’t consistently present options. They don’t fully leverage financing and are leaving an opportunity on the table. So while the markets are active, the execution varies widely. Yeah, and I see that all the time in coaching as well.
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Was there anything that really surprised you guys this year? Well, what stood out to me was how consistent some of these patterns are. Even with all the education, the tools, the technology that’s available, behavior change is still slow. Adoption of best practices is really uneven. So at the same time, the contractors who are adopting those practices are seeing better margins, higher close rates and more stability overall.
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So the gap is becoming more visible. And that’s really, really interesting. And again, stuff we see in coaching all the time, especially the idea that the gap is widening. So let’s talk about the human side of this. Let’s talk about kind of the contractor mindset. You know, what do these results tell us about the current mindset of VC contractors in 2026.
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Are they feeling optimistic cautious pressured? What’s the overall tone. Yeah, it’s definitely a mix. So there’s still optimism because the demand is there. The opportunities are there. But there’s also a strong sense of kind of pressure and fatigue. A lot of contractors are saying, you know, we’re working working harder than ever. We’re busy, but not always as profitable as we should be.
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Some of the biggest concerns we’re seeing, finding and keeping good people managing cash flow that hasn’t changed since I was a contractor. Finding keeping good people is the common theme. Year after year. Yeah, I think that eventually it’s probably not the only industry that’s experiencing that as well. Yeah. So along with that, it’s managing the cash flow, keeping up with rising costs.
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That just keeps becoming more and more of a pressure point. And then just the complexity of running the business. So the mindset is opportunity paired with some stress. And that’s where the need for better systems and structures really shows up. You know, I actually created a sales training program called Stress free Hvac sales. Because you know what? I’ve been there, done that.
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And this can be a stressful business if you don’t have the processes. In fact, I learned that the more processes I put in place, the less stress I had in my business. And so I’m a big believer. So where do contractors seem to see their biggest opportunities right now. So the opportunity is really in execution. It’s not necessarily more leads or more demand.
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It’s doing a better job with the opportunities they already have. And that includes, like we mentioned earlier, presenting options, using financing effectively, pricing with confidence and then creating a better customer experience. The contractors who focus there are the ones really pulling ahead. Yeah, so that customer experience has become kind of the main, the main thing that people are focusing on in the industry, the ones that are really, you know, kind of transitioning from that reactive approach that you talked about earlier and being more proactive.
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They’re really focusing on making sure that you, as the customer, Julie, are experiencing something is a little bit less stressful. Number one, but also a, you know, just just a more pleasurable interaction if there is such a thing with an Hvac contractor. So that’s really a powerful takeaway. It’s not always about more. It really is about better. So let’s talk about the differences across the market.
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So were there any meaningful kind of differences based on company size, role, experience or geography that stood out? Yeah. And this is where it really gets interesting. So one of the clearest differences is based on company size and structure. So smaller contractors tend to be more hands on. They have less formal systems. And they often rely solely on the owner for the key decisions.
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Larger, more developed companies are more likely to have defined processes, dedicated roles within the organization and clear financial visibility. And we also saw some differences in experience level. Newer contractors often struggle more with pricing and structure and then role perspective. So owners versus managers don’t always see the business in the same way. And imagine that that’s not right.
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That and then geographically. So while there’s some differences the core challenges are surprisingly consistent across three regions. Yeah. And you know, you think about that. We we we paid a little extra special attention this year to differences between the U.S. and Canada. So looking across the border, what would you guys see there? You know, there are some variations, but overall, the core issues that labor pricing, operations, they’re very similar.
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And then the biggest differences tend to show up in some of the market conditions, the regulatory environments, and sometimes adoption or adoption of certain practices. And but fundamentally, contractors on both sides of the border are dealing with many of the same challenges. Yeah. And that’s that’s you know, you never know till you look at it. But that’s kind of what we expected because I’ve done training in USA and Canada.
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And when you when you really look at it, we’re dealing with the same kinds of issues. Yeah. We’ve got some different, maybe some different political kind of things, some different governmental kind of things and, and and all that. But it really is a, where is the industries not that different from, from different places, you know, different places around the country.
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So, Julie, based on everything you’ve seen in the 2026 survey, what should contractors, distributors and manufacturers be paying closer attention to right now? Well, I’d put it into three areas. So first, don’t ignore the fundamentals. The basics still matter. I don’t see that changing anytime soon. Really. Dial in on pricing process, training and the financial visibility aspects. Second, focus on behavior, not just your tools.
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So a lot of contractors have access to great platforms, great training, all these great resources. But the results come from consistent execution. And third, pay attention to the gaps. The biggest opportunity in this industry right now is closing the gap between average and high performance. For distributors and manufacturers, that means supporting contractors beyond just the products and then helping them improve how they run their businesses.
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And for contractors, it means being willing to step back and evaluate how you’re operating and then make changes where you need to. Yeah, we just finished up a, a Raising Goats program out in, Phoenix and the four Principles for Raising Goats, one of the principals is all about execution. We call it. You know, it’s all about implementation and operation.
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Right? So those are all execution related words. And, to a person in in the meeting, they’re saying that’s our biggest challenge is getting everyone on the same sheet of paper doing the same stuff on a consistent basis. And that’s also what drives the the customer experience. Right? If you’ve got technician A does a great job, technician B does an okay job, technician C does A not so good job if they showed up at your house duly technician they would own you.
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You just say I just don’t. If you can’t send a don’t send anybody. Right. If you’ve experienced B and C so being consistent critically important. So what’s one thing that you think people tend to overlook in data like this? I mean you do this all the time. So what do people overlook right. So it’s not just information it’s direction.
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So the goal isn’t just to read the data and say oh that’s nice. It’s to ask yourself, what does this mean for how I run my business tomorrow? And the contractors who do that are the ones who will benefit. Yeah, that’s so true. Because just looking at the pretty pictures and the words and the graphs and the charts, I mean, that’s not any good.
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It’s like, what do we do with this? Right. So when you look at all of this together, what gives you the most confidence about the future of the Hvac industry? You know, it’s the willingness to improve even with all the challenges we see. You know, contractors investing in learning, looking for better ways to operate, trying to build stronger businesses.
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That mindset is what drives progress, man. I think you just hit this out of the ballpark. Julie, thank you for being with us and helping bring these survey results to life. And I know you didn’t do it by yourself, so definitely not. Let’s give a shout out to the rest of the folks on your team that were involved in this thing.
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Who was involved in making this work for you? You know, there’s always Felicia Rogers, my EVP. She is integral to all the work that we do here at Decision Analyst. And you may remember, Hilary Cinnamon, she was with me out at epic. She has been a great resource, as well as we read into not just what the contractors are saying, but giving us some of that homeowner perspective as well.
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So it’s always a team over here at seven analysts working hard. So Julie, thank you again. And what I always appreciate about conversations like this is that they help us move beyond assumptions and really understand what’s happening in the field. So the 2026 HCC Contractor Survey is more than just data. It’s a snapshot of an industry that’s an evolving.
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It’s adapting and it’s full of opportunities. So for contractors, distributors and manufacturers, the real value is taking these insights and turning them into better decisions. Thanks again, Julie, for joining us on Cracking the Code. And to everyone watching or listening. Thanks for being with us. If you found this helpful, be sure to like, subscribe, and share this episode with someone else in the industry who wants to stay ahead of what’s changing.
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We’ll see you next time on cracking the code.
