How Contractors are Thriving in a Changing Landscape
External pressures are reshaping the HVAC industry — from tariffs and private equity, to rapidly evolving homeowner expectations. Yet despite it all, top-performing contractors are growing stronger and finding new ways to stay in control by turning challenges into opportunities.
On this episode of Cracking the Code, David Holt sits down with Decision Analyst, a leading marketing research and advanced analytics firm, to speak with Vice Presidents Julie Trujillo and Hilary Selman. Together, they reveal how contractors are adapting to change, expanding into new services, and using smart technology and financing to strengthen customer relationships.
From maintenance agreements that create steady revenue streams to AI tools that enhance customer satisfaction, you’ll discover how to build trust, deliver better experiences, and thrive in today’s competitive landscape. Want to shape the future of the industry? Take part in the Annual Contractor Survey for HVAC Business Leaders and make your voice heard! Take the survey today!
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00:00:00:00 – 00:00:23:01
Homeowners are indeed participating in choosing contractors that are offering more solutions. Imagine if your technician arrived at the home and they already know what’s wrong with the system. Would you have a technician that is certified? They tend to get higher ratings.
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Welcome to crack in the code where we make Hvac success clear, simple, and stress free. I’m your host and contractor, University general manager David Holt. This episode is the latest of a 16 part series that introduces you to the awesome speakers you’ll see at epic 2026. If you don’t want to miss next week’s episode, please subscribe and turn on your notifications.
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And here’s a quick reminder. Your voice really matters. Visit my contractor university.com to participate in our annual contractor survey for Hvac business leaders. You may even win a prize package just for completing the survey. That includes a two night stay at Bellagio and an all access pass to Epic 2026. In today’s episode, we’re honored to speak with Julie Trujillo and Hilary Selman.
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Market research experts from Decision analyst. Julie and Hilary are presenting a breakout session during our Epic 2026 conference entitled 2026 Hvac Contractor Survey Reports. Key takeaways and new findings in this session, they’ll pull back the curtain on what participating contractors reported during his latest survey of Hvac business leaders, identifying the most urgent topics, pressing challenges, and biggest opportunities facing home service businesses right now.
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So let’s get cracking. So welcome to cracking the code, ladies. Well, thanks Dave. It’s great to be here. We’re really looking forward to having this conversation. Can’t wait to kick it off. That’s awesome. So Julie, your research earlier this year revealed that many outside influences, from tariffs to private equity to changing homeowner preferences, are really impacting our industry.
00:02:10:14 – 00:02:39:11
And of course, you know that successful contractors need to feel they have control over their destiny. So what did the survey uncover about how top performing contractors are maintaining control and thriving despite these external pressures? Yeah, Dave, we really do see that contractors are thriving, like you said. You know, among those that we surveyed, most are reporting year on year over year increases in revenue, which is awesome.
00:02:39:13 – 00:03:05:11
You know, we’re excited to see it. I’m sure they’re all excited to have that happening. And there’s really a couple of ways that they are kind of, like you said, maintaining control. We see them doing everything from growing their territory. They’re also looking at offering additional services. So making HBC may still be their primary, but maybe they’re looking into electrical or plumbing or, you know, some other type of home service as well.
00:03:05:11 – 00:03:35:17
That kind of fits where they’re already at. And then another tactic, and that’s working really well for a lot of them is maintenance agreements. So these agreements as you know, they can help ensure a steady stream of revenue and contractors understand the benefits of growing the number of customers that they have enrolled in these types of programs. You know, one last thing I think I would say here on, taking control is just ensuring a great customer experience.
00:03:35:18 – 00:04:01:08
You know, they know that’s a lot easier to keep an existing customer than it is to try and win a new one. So they’re really using that and working smarter, not harder. You know, they’re making sure that they have the staff that’s necessary to meet the demand that’s out there. They’re training those staff to make sure that they have not just the technical skills, but the non-technical skills that they need to, you know, best serve those customers.
00:04:01:09 – 00:04:24:01
And, you know, as I see it back there, is contractor University is really invaluable for them for that type of training. And then, you know, last thing I think I would say on that is just, you know, making sure that they’ve got a financing solution to offer customers, and their staff are trained on, you know, how to talk to customers about that in that offering that they’ve got.
00:04:24:02 – 00:04:44:05
So those are really know some key things that are helping them just maintain control and kind of this crazy environment that we’ve got. So once again, I represent the homeowner hat. And what’s so interesting and I find rather fascinating is we think about the contractor lens, is the homeowner is wanting certain things as well. And Julie, as you were chatting, I took down a couple of notes.
00:04:44:05 – 00:05:10:03
And so I wanted to sort of highlight those. And one of them is around the home. And what we’re seeing is that homeowners are indeed, you know, participating in choosing contractors that are offering more solutions. They’re leaning in, or at least the whole homes that they’re leaning into have electrical, have plumbing. So think about what that does to other kinds of things in the home or types of heating and cooling that they may want to put in the home.
00:05:10:05 – 00:05:41:13
The other thing you referenced, of course, is customer satisfaction and something to be mindful of. This is one of my well, there’s so many favorite nuggets in the American Home Comfort study. But one in particular is that when you have, technician that is certified, they tend to get higher ratings from the homeowner. So is it that from that additional certification that there’s more training, there’s something about that experience that converts to homeowner satisfaction.
00:05:41:15 – 00:06:08:12
And then the last thing I wanted to comment on your your sharing of, insights truly is around financing. We know from the homeowner’s perspective that financing is very important, and especially for a younger homeowner, someone under 45 years of age. They are really leaning in on multiple, payments payments sources when it comes to heating and cooling.
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For many homeowners, as we know, these are emergent needs and they don’t have $10,000 sitting aside for that. Maybe they had ten grand set aside for daycare or preschool or whatever it is. So I think it’s really important that, our contractors are very conversant and financing and what that can do and not to be shy to talk about it, and I think especially raising it for emergency purchases is probably really helpful.
00:06:39:23 – 00:07:02:22
And, assuring the baby to the homeowner that they’ll be able to get their house back to regular whatever that season might be. So those were a couple of things I wanted to add in. Dave. That’s absolutely awesome, Hilary. And it’s interesting because it kind of ties into our next question, which is really, you know, there’s so much buzz about the good old AI monster out there and smart home technology.
00:07:03:00 – 00:07:27:11
I mean, I look at those as potential ways that an HPC contractor can start looking into ways to grow their their book of business within their own customer base. You mentioned maintenance agreements and and certainly that is a, the it’s kind of like a wedding ring on that customer’s finger, right? It’s like we’re as a business, we’re marrying that customer and saying, look, we’re going to take care of you for better or for worse, right?
00:07:27:11 – 00:07:54:08
We’re going to take care of you. We’re going to make sure everything’s running well. So with with all the buzz about AI and smart home technology, how did your American home comfort study dive into those homeowners rapid adoption of smart home automation? And can you share how you discover what you discovered about the real opportunities, not just the hype for Hvac contractors to capitalize on this trend?
00:07:54:10 – 00:08:21:15
Absolutely. And when I think about Smart home or I, from the lens of American home comfort, there’s three different components to it, if you will, from our learnings. One, it’s just about smart home automation. We have a tremendous amount of insight into smart thermostats, what that means to the homeowner and then to the contractor. And then this year, we actually added in a series of questions around artificial intelligence and, and, openness to it.
00:08:21:15 – 00:08:44:03
And are there any concerns that they might think about it? And so what I’d like to share now are those three things. And here’s just a little peek under the hood for it. So when it comes to smart home automation, yes, it is growing. And I think it is the I know from this research is the proliferation of products that are helping frogs be smarter.
00:08:44:08 – 00:09:10:18
And in addition to smart homes, if they be around heating and cooling, it’s things like their lighting system, their entertainment system, security garage, whatever it might be. There is a large adoption of smart home or smart technology. But what’s interesting, and now I’m going to kind of segue down to thermostats. Smart thermostats, all, like many home owners, have, they want them.
00:09:10:19 – 00:09:36:00
The problem is they don’t know how to use them. And so then they’re having unwarranted service calls because the homeowner is like, hey, my thermostats not working. And actually it’s user error. And I know this user error part just through qualitative, not through our own particular, American home Comfort study. So with smart thermostats adoption is great, but actual usage isn’t.
00:09:36:02 – 00:10:04:02
And I think that there is an opportunity for, the contractors to better, better educate the homeowner on it. Home owners are overriding the system. And, you know, that’s why they’re not working. The smart thermostat needs to be in the environment to be able to figure out how to work appropriately. So, you know, people are adopting products. We know people are definitely adopting to smart thermostats, but perhaps don’t know how to use them appropriately.
00:10:04:06 – 00:10:28:01
And I think that’s important for the, contractor to think about. And then when it comes to, I, you know, we ask people, are you comfortable with AI? You know, what do you think about it? And we definitely are seeing what I’ll call generational age differences here. So there’s a group of homeowners, we’ll call them digital natives, those that are under 45 years of age.
00:10:28:04 – 00:10:55:22
They kind of grew up in the world of technology. And they have a higher sense of trust, if you will, of artificial intelligence. They’re more comfortable with it than the older homeowner. And I think that’s really important for the contractor to be aware of, because when you talk about these technologies or these predictive diagnostics, you have to remember not everybody will be, easily wanting to adopt that kind of technology.
00:10:56:04 – 00:11:14:06
So I think it’s important that we think about we don’t treat all homeowners the same, and we have to be a little bit more sensitive to how we talk about AI and how we talk about these predictive measures. You know, there are people that have a they have a distrust of their, you know, their skepticism around that.
00:11:14:06 – 00:11:40:13
There’s concerns around, reliability, privacy, potential misuse. I was at H.R. in February and in a session and asked a question, actually about AI. And then afterwards I was having side conversations with people, and a woman said she’s afraid that they’re going to know when I’m not home and come to my home and do harm, like I never would have thought anyone would have thought of anything nefarious like that.
00:11:40:15 – 00:12:04:14
But these are what real homeowners are thinking about. So I think we have to be thoughtful when we talk about AI with our homeowners. But also, there are some really people who are comfortable with it. And once again, that’s a little bit more of the younger homeowner. I think they love the idea of proactive maintenance. They love the idea of knowing that the contractor is staying on top of their.
00:12:04:14 – 00:12:36:21
That is impeding any breakdowns that might be happening. You know, this helps with early detection. So maybe they can figure out a little something versus something bigger. Also, I think people have to really have trust in their contractors. You know, we saw in our research that a significant number of participants emphasized that they trusted their contractor, and that really plays a crucial role and how they might feel about that cost that that contractor monitoring their AI system.
00:12:36:23 – 00:13:11:20
And then, you know, while there are many benefits, I think that the contractors need to do, a clear job, a a nice way of communicating things that let the homeowner know about concerns about privacy, accuracy, misuse, those types of things. So that’s what we’re seeing in our data around, that smart home. And I would tack on that just a little bit from the contractor side point of view, you know, homeowners, like you said, Hillary, some of them are really jumping on it and some are a little bit more hesitant.
00:13:11:22 – 00:13:32:04
We are seeing, you know, from our earlier research that the contractors are using AI. A lot of them are using it internally at this point, mostly for, you know, handling that’s inbound calls from customers. They may be adding something into their online presence. So maybe that’s a chat bot that can answer some of those more routine questions.
00:13:32:06 – 00:14:08:11
Or even something like managing scheduling. So that’s kind of where we see it, contractors leaning into it at this point. We are diving into that a little bit more in this year’s survey. So I’m excited to see kind of what we’ve learned from our contractors this year on their thoughts on AI. And I can tell you that it’s interesting, when you were talking about the safety issue, Hillary, I was, I was thinking back to the days when I was running my dad’s business back in the 90s and the, the trust issue was evidenced by people’s willingness to give us the security code to their home and a key.
00:14:08:13 – 00:14:28:06
Right. So we had ultimate trust with those types of people. And we had a lot of keys. We had a lot of keys in our key box and a lot of alarm codes as well. So that was good for us. Right. But I never thought about the, the opportunity for, I guess nefarious activity to occur based on knowing that the house is unoccupied.
00:14:28:06 – 00:14:55:06
That’s, that’s an interesting that’s an interesting bit of information that we need to consider. And that was like one person I was having a casual conversation with, and it’s the lens that I never even considered. Exactly right. You know, and that’s the kind of thing that’s like, I bet if we ask that question, like overtly, I mean, we just literally ask the question, do are you concerned about the possibility of all of a sudden it’s like, oh, yeah, that is a concern now that you bring it up.
00:14:55:06 – 00:15:22:19
Hillary. Thanks. But it’s true. But it’s really true. I mean, it’s interesting. So so Julie, back on the on the contractor side, your data shows that while the industry threats abound, there’s lots of different things going on. So do significant opportunities on the other side of that. So what surprised you most about the top HVC leaders about what they identified as the biggest opportunities ahead?
00:15:22:21 – 00:15:50:11
So, you know, it’s interesting. You know, one of the things, you know, like you said, there’s a lot of threats out there coming kind of from all sides at these contractors. One of the biggest surprises for me, this isn’t necessarily the opportunity piece of it, but the fact that the leaders that we heard from, they are so very optimistic about the future of Hvac, and they really do see some opportunity areas that they can take advantage of.
00:15:50:11 – 00:16:26:14
So when we talk about, you know, the smart home automation and AI, and technological improvements and the equipment, all these things that we see the leaders really leaning into them, they see a lot of opportunity in these. So when you think about the equipment and it getting smarter and that the AI systems that are out there, it’s a huge opportunity for contractors, especially as they kind of think about triangulating, you know, diagnostics and scheduling and stuff and how to just really create more efficiency.
00:16:26:16 – 00:16:52:06
Having those three things be more of the a little bit than an . And so, like I said, they can also, you know, counterbalance, staff shortages. So on the technician side, you know, imagine if your technician arrived at the home and they already know what’s wrong with the system. That’s going to say, you know, I don’t know, minimum of 30 minutes on every call that they’ve got to make.
00:16:52:06 – 00:17:20:12
So it’s just really, there’s so much opportunity that they can, can’t take and see from those aspects working, working together. And then Hillary mentioned earlier, you know, we’ve got this changing demographic in terms of who the homeowners are. And there’s this whole younger cohort that’s buying their first home. And, you know, that’s a huge purchase. But then you’ve put Hvac systems and all these other systems on top of it.
00:17:20:13 – 00:17:54:22
And there is that opportunity for those 50 contractor to really become kind of a partner in homeownership with them to build that trust, and, and build that long term relationship with them. So, you know, homeowners that are in this younger group, too, they’re looking for DIY solutions and maybe nontraditional sales channels. But, you know, the the really top performing leaders aren’t looking at that and saying, oh, no, they’re looking and understanding that need to really build the relationship with the homeowner.
00:17:55:00 – 00:18:18:18
You know, get those service agreements with them and use those opportunities as they come to them. And Julie, I love that you gave a nod to, like, the things you can do on the graphic. And I think that what’s interesting about it is that indeed, and this is really new news to contractors, is that indeed, younger homeowners are not seeking the contractor out first there do everyone’s doing a bit research, right.
00:18:18:18 – 00:18:36:17
So they’re online doing the research, kind of getting a figure about what are the brands, what are like the price parameters. And then they’re going to a contractor. And I think that leaves two things for the contractor. One, I think the contractor has to continue to have a really solid online presence so that homeowners can find them, like, don’t do away with that.
00:18:36:17 – 00:18:57:23
That’s critical. But also know that some of your homeowners are coming armed with some information. And I think that gives them comfort. And maybe that’s okay for the contractor. Like let them acknowledge that what the contractor be okay, that they weren’t like their first source of information, because that’s a new trend that we’re seeing. We’ve been seeing it for about six years now.
00:18:58:04 – 00:19:15:07
Yeah. It’s something that they’ve got to think about and lean into. And the top contractors are going to do that. So I really appreciate all this input. You guys. I can’t wait to see you guys in in Vegas. And let’s let’s bring the whole report to everybody and let them see what’s going on. It’s going to be great.
00:19:15:13 – 00:19:41:16
Looking forward to it. Love it. Thanks for the opportunity to chat Julian Hillery, thanks for joining us today and sharing your awesome insights. I know your epic 2026 breakout session will be absolutely eye opening. For more information about Julian Hillary’s breakout session, visit the epic 2020 6.com website and check out the agenda for Friday at 11 a.m.. If you haven’t already registered for the conference, make sure you do so soon!
00:19:41:21 – 00:20:18:09
A sell out is just around the corner. Click Register Now at Epic 2026 so you don’t miss out. Also, please do us a favor like and share this episode so we can help more Hvac contractors improve their business. Thanks for watching! Cracking the Code where we make Hvac success clear, simple, and stress free. See you next time!
